A terrible tragedy is unfolding in (fill in the name of your favorite trouble spot). Something must be done. This (choose from sending troops, air strikes, enforcing a no fly zone, arming rebels) is something. Therefore it must be done.
Such is what passes for much of policy advice by some analysts, many unembarrassed by their dismal record on Iraq 10 years ago. The latest trouble spot of choice for their penetrating insights is Syria. And the latest development to have heightened their excitability is claims of chemical weapons — sarin, a banned nerve gas — having been used there.
Two sensible pieces of policy advice for dealing with violent conflicts in that region: (1) If you understand the problem, you have been misinformed; (2) If you are confronted with a series of exclamation marks, substitute each with several question marks.