Once again Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir waved his walking stick in the air. Once again he spoke of splendid victories over his enemies as thousands of jubilant supporters danced and cheered. But this time around the stakes are too high.
An all-out war against newly independent South Sudan might not be in Sudan's best interest. South Sudan's saber-rattling is not an entirely independent initiative; its most recent territorial transgressions — which saw the occupation of Sudan's largest oil field in Heglig on April 10, followed by a hasty retreat 10 days later — might have been calculated to draw Sudan into a larger conflict.
Stunted by the capture of Heglig, which, according to some estimates, provides nearly half of the country's oil production, Bashir promised victory over Juba. Speaking to large crowd in the capital of North Kordofan, El-Obeid, Bashir effectively declared war.