Back in 1989, when the communist regimes of Europe were tottering, almost every day somebody would say "There's going to be a civil war." And our job, as foreign journalists who allegedly had their finger on the pulse of events, was to say: "No, there won't." So most of us did say that, as if we actually knew. But the locals were pathetically grateful, and we turned out to be right.
It was just the same in South Africa in 1993-94. Another non-violent revolution was taking on another dictatorship with a long record of brutality, and once again most people who had lived their lives under its rule were convinced there would be a civil war. So we foreign journalists reassured them that there wouldn't be, and again we turned out to be right.
Now it's Syria's turn, and yet again most of the people who live there fear that their non-violent revolution will end in civil war. It's not my job to reassure them this time, because like most foreign journalists I can't even get into the country, but in any case I would have no reassurance to offer. This time, it may well end in civil war. Like Iraq.