Regarding Ramesh Thakur’s Sept. 5 article, “Forecasts of robust middle-class growth are reason enough for Chinese, Indian optimism“: I admire Thakur’s optimism about India and China. In the first two decades after India’s independence, it was touted as one of the next economic superpowers. Years of waiting and underachievement proved many optimists wrong.
Likewise, China, after years of ideological experimentation, proved to be a disaster. It is tempting for many to extrapolate, based on the high growth of the last decade, that India and China are well on their way to becoming important economic superpowers. A lot remains uncertain, though, in both countries.
China’s economy is so unbalanced that social turmoil is just one matchstick away. India’s government is so inefficient and corrupt that even fasting in protest will do nothing to correct it. One only needs to look at Brazil and Argentina in the early years of the last century to remain cautious about irrational optimism.
With so much uncertainty in the foreseeable future, I say the jury is still out.
One thing is certain: The United States will see a major decline in economic and military power in the years to come. It’s anybody’s guess what will become of us after 10 years.
The opinions expressed in this letter to the editor are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect the policies of The Japan Times.
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