Mr. George W. Bush, the 43rd president of the United States, believes history will vindicate him. That thinking is typical of his presidency: It bespeaks an enduring optimism and faith in the future, a relentless refusal to bend to facts, and the certitude that his decisions, no matter how controversial, were right. That certitude tended to put belief ahead of fact. Will the future vindicate him?

Today the verdict is negative. There was a collective sigh of relief on Nov. 4, not only at the election of Mr. Barack Obama, but at the defeat of Sen. John McCain, a candidate whose views veered ominously close to those of the incumbent president, and the prospect of the departure of Mr. Bush himself.

At the time of the election, just 24 percent of Americans said they considered Mr. Bush's presidency a success. Today, there has been a slight rebound to 31 percent — "the typical nostalgia bump that most outgoing presidents get," explained one analyst. That is the lowest rating among all U.S. presidents in six decades of polling, save for that of Richard Nixon when he resigned.