The Iranians have clearly concluded that all the American and Israeli threats to attack them are mere bluff. Israel could not destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities unless it was willing to drop large numbers of nuclear weapons on Iran. The United States could do the job using only conventional weapons, but in reply Iran could close the Gulf to tanker traffic and cause a global economic crisis.

So the U.S. and Israel must be bluffing, unless they are crazy. This explains the bravado of Iran's little propaganda show on July 9, when it test-launched a number of ballistic missiles, including one that has the ability to carry a nuclear weapon and the range to strike Israel. This elicited the usual veiled threats of an attack on Iran from both Washington and Jerusalem, but the Iranians don't believe them anymore.

The Shahab-3 missile that the Iranians tested has flown before, and it could reach Israel. However, it lacks a proper guidance system, and probably could not penetrate Israel's anti-ballistic missile defenses.