WARSAW -- The late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to quip that "a week is a long time in politics." In the 30 or so weeks between now and the next French presidential election, any prediction made today could be reversed, and reversed again, before the vote.
But two candidates have emerged as clear and constant favorites in opinion polls: Nicolas Sarkozy on the right and Segolene Royal on the left. In fact, they have more in common than meets the eye, for each speaks of a rupture with the past while incarnating a form of continuity.
For Sarkozy, "rupture" reflects both mundanely tactical and deeply personal choices. The 12 years of Jacques Chirac's presidency, together with France's tradition of alternation in power, suggests a victory for the left. Positioning himself as the candidate who represents a sharp break with today's unpopular politics is the only means to escape that fate. This is reflected in Sarkozy's openly pro-American stance -- an act of political courage in a France where anti-Americanism is running high.