Monday's dissolution of the Lower House for a snap election on Sept. 11 has focused attention on the possibility that the coming election will usher in a viable two-party system. Such a possibility cannot be ruled out. A divisive development within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could help the Democratic Party of Japan, the No. 1 opposition party, gain enough strength in the Lower House to claim power.
Even a failure to win a clear majority would not necessarily doom the DPJ. If it secures a large enough plurality to allow it to take power in alliance with a smaller party, that would also mark the beginning of a two-party system in Japan. The split in the LDP that has resulted from intraparty struggles over the postal-service privatization bills will most likely weaken the party in the election. But the damage is not sufficient to deal a fatal blow. It seems certain that the LDP will be strong enough to assume power in coalition with the New Komeito.
All this indicates that the Sept. 11 election could create a situation in which two parties or two alliances of parties are almost equally matched in strength. In this sense, the coming election could lay the groundwork for a solid two-party system. Japanese voters have good reasons for such expectations. Japan's representative democracy has come a long way since women were enfranchised in 1945, however, a functioning two-party system has yet to emerge.