Iraq has a "road map" to normalcy. The first step was the withdrawal of the occupation government, which occurred a little over a year ago. The second major step was the national elections that were held in January. Despite protests by some Sunnis, the vote was largely a success. The third big step is rapidly approaching: Iraq is supposed to have a draft constitution by Aug. 15. The formulation of this document may be the most important of the three steps, for it establishes a political framework that will guide all subsequent political developments. Even if some Iraqis complain that the January election was unfair, the document that is now being written will ensure that the political playing field is level in the future and that all Iraqis are protected by law.
According to the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL), which has guided the country since Iraqis reclaimed control of their own destiny, the draft constitution is to be ready Aug. 15, so that it can be voted on in a national referendum Oct. 15. If it is approved, Iraq will then hold a second parliamentary election Dec. 15 to install a new government, the terms of which will be dictated by the new constitution. In fact, however, the Aug. 15 deadline is flexible: The TAL allows for an extra six months to draft the document. But there are justifiable worries that delaying the process that long could be fatal to the country's prospects as political momentum slows and insurgents intensify their efforts to dictate Iraq's future by plunging it into civil war.
The insurgency has done damage already. Two weeks ago, 12 Sunni members of the 71-person drafting committee launched a boycott after two of their Sunni colleagues were assassinated. Al-Qaeda in Iraq warned Sunnis not to join in the political process; after being promised more security by the government and assurances that their grievances would be heard, the 12 politicians resumed their work. Support from Sunni Arabs is critical. No document that ignores the concerns of 20 percent of Iraq's population is going to be workable or fair. More practically, the TAL allows for the constitution to be rejected if voters in three of the country's 18 provinces reject it by a two-thirds majority, and Sunnis form a majority in four provinces.