PALO ALTO, Calif. -- President George W. Bush has claimed a renewed mandate and has reshuffled his national securit team. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice will become Secretary of State, and Steve Hadley will move up at the National Security Council. Richard Armitage and Jim Kelly, who have borne much of the day-to-day responsibility for U.S. policy in Asia, are leaving the administration along with Secretary of State Colin Powell.

What might we expect of the Bush administration in its second term? Generally speaking, continuity rather than change is likely to be the watchword in foreign policy.

Above all, the Middle East and South Asia are likely to remain the principal American preoccupations. In Iraq, Washington will seek to acquit its commitments -- hold elections, train Iraqi security forces and accelerate reconstruction projects -- with whatever measure of dignity and honor it can muster in the face of excruciatingly difficult choices.