Japan's economy last entered an expansionary phase in February 2002. Thirty-three months later, in October 2004, it was losing steam. It would not be surprising if the recovery ended that month, as upswings in Japan's business cycles since the end of World War II have lasted, on average, about the same period of time.
A government economic report shows that coincident indicators -- which measure prevailing economic conditions -- dropped below the boom-and-bust line of 50 percent for three consecutive months through October. For example, industrial production, factory shipments and retail sales all suffered declines.
Revised preliminary data on the gross domestic product for July-through-September period also point to a slowdown. Third-quarter GDP declined marginally in nominal terms, which incorporate the effects of price changes. The Cabinet Office says the recovery may be ending -- the first time it has mentioned that possibility.