HONOLULU -- The National Intelligence Council, which does strategic analysis for the U.S. government, recently published parts of its "2020 project" (www.cia.gov./nic/NIC_home.html), examining forces that will shape the world through 2020, region by region. The East Asia analysis posits three "broad trends" shaping the region:
First, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia will develop along divergent paths. "The countries of the North will become wealthier and more powerful, while the largest states in the South -- Indonesia and the Philippines -- will become poorer, more populous and more unstable." Yet as the two regions become more integrated, the South will become a source of transnational threats to the North.
Second, China will become more powerful and more influential in the region.