A big question hangs over Japanese politics in 2003: Will a snap general election be held? The key to the question is held by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has the prerogative of dissolving the Lower House. Mr. Koizumi, who is also president of the Liberal Democratic Party, faces a party presidential contest in September.
Election rumors have been circulating as Mr. Koizumi continues to fight an uphill battle in pursuing his reform agenda. His drive to privatize debt-ridden highway corporations faces high hurdles, as does his plan to clean up the banking system. Not surprisingly, the LDP's old guard, looking for a reversal of tight economic policy, wants to see him step down.
Diplomacy will also test Mr. Koizumi's leadership. In the event of a war in Iraq, Japan will need to articulate its position more clearly. Closer to home, North Korea's nuclear adventurism also poses a grave challenge to Tokyo.