I n the end, it was anticlimactic. The victory of Mr. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's first leftist president, was a foregone conclusion. Now, Mr. Silva, better known as "Lula," must assemble a government that will calm foreign jitters about his economic policies and priorities as well as mend the ailing Brazilian economy. The first will be considerably easier than the second. Just as important is the impact Mr. Silva's election could have on prospects for the left throughout Latin America. His victory challenges the reigning paradigm in the region. Eventual success in tackling the problems that Brazil faces could herald yet another transition in regional politics.
After leading the first round of voting earlier this month, Mr. Silva's win in last weekend's election was almost assured. The former labor leader claimed 61 percent of the vote, besting the government candidate, Mr. Jose Serra, who won only 39 percent. His win was the largest such margin in Brazilian history. The key issue in the election was the economy. Outgoing President Henrique Cardosa has been an ardent proponent of market forces, one of the wave of similarly inclined leaders who came to power after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the seeming ascendancy of liberal democratic ideas. His administration curbed inflation, but he could not deliver growth.
Brazil's economy has been stagnant -- estimates forecast 1 percent growth this year -- while unemployment has topped 8 percent in the cities and continues to edge upward. The currency, the real, has plunged, losing more than 40 percent of its value against the dollar -- an especially troubling development given the country's $260 billion foreign debt. Interest rates have reached 21 percent. Public debt more than doubled during Cardosa's term in office, jumping from 30 percent of GDP to more than 60 percent.