The Communist Party of China's leadership-succession process remains shrouded in secrecy, but six broad scenarios have been identified by China-watchers as likely to unfold in the next six months as that process is completed at the 16th Party Congress starting Nov. 8, and then at the National Peoples' Congress next spring.
A new book by professor Andrew Nathan and journalist Bruce Gilley, which is to be published soon in the United States, claims, on the basis of secret CPC documents, that the already-agreed succession will be smooth, and that President Jiang Zemin will retire from all his positions.
Not everyone is convinced, however. For one thing, the documents upon which the book is based were smuggled out of China earlier this year, whereas signs that Jiang will hang on to power have recently multiplied.