SEOUL -- Under normal circumstances, the meaning of a great event should become clearer in retrospect than in prospect. Yet on the first anniversary of last year's Korean summit, confusion rather than clarity reigns. In a sense, a year is too short a time to know if real change has occurred, setting peninsular relations on a new trajectory, or whether we are still circling the same track. It is still hard to know if the Pyongyang summit meets the test of a historic event: Has it truly altered the political landscape on the Korean Peninsula?
Although the summit has been followed up by a series of ministerial meetings, the process was put on hold by the North pending the completion of a U.S. policy review. The big question now is if and when North Korean leader Kim Jong Il will make his promised return visit to Seoul for the second summit now that the policy review is completed and the United States is prepared to re-engage. The summit script called for a play in two acts, not one. Without a second summit, last year's meeting in Pyongyang will fall short of being a truly historic event. It could also signal a final curtain call for Seoul's Sunshine Policy.
While it appears that the North wants better relations with the U.S., its attitude toward Seoul is difficult to fathom. For example, while Southern political and social organizations were invited to Mount Kumgang for an anniversary event, South Korea's government was kept at arms length in retaliation for similar U.S. treatment of the North.