How long will the United States continue to believe that it should help China to get rich by keeping American markets open? That's the key question now that the 24 servicemen and -women from the downed U.S. surveillance aircraft have been allowed to return home. Never before has America allowed a potentially hostile rising power with an authoritarian government to run up a huge trade surplus that helps it build the sinews of war. If the U.S. comes to believe that China will never become a democracy, it is likely to opt for containment.
But it is too soon to conclude that China will remain authoritarian. Nor, in current circumstances, would America's regional allies support containment, which would include economic embargo and thus be tantamount to a declaration of war. For now, it remains in America's interest to draw China further into the global economy because there is a good chance that market forces will act as solvents of tyranny. Unlike in Pyongyang, moderates do exist in Beijing's government, which is far from monolithic.
But America must underpin its policies with robust deterrence in case "engagement" fails. The Clinton administration saw engagement as an end in itself and criticized Americans who opposed it as isolationists. That puffed up the Chinese, who are always prone to see themselves as the center of the universe. We saw the consequences in the truculent behavior of Chinese diplomats last week and their insistence that the U.S. was at fault, even before any investigation had been made. Throughout its modern history, China has been preyed upon by others, but it has often been the architect of its own misfortunes.