The pompous and the powerful are wrapping up their annual get-together in Davos, the Swiss alpine village made famous in recent years by the World Economic Forum. This year, there were as many police and security officials as attendees, an indication of the real dangers that threaten the global economy. Politicians and corporate officials may worry about the slowdown in the United States and its implications, but the real threat to long-term growth and prosperity stems from the growing perception that globalization's benefits are not being shared by all.
Many, if not most, of the discussions in the arenas, halls and bars of the resort are focusing on the U.S. After a historic period of growth, America's economy is slowing down. That the U.S. will experience a recession is now accepted; the only questions are how long and how severe it will be. Since the U.S. appetite for goods powered the world economy through the Asian crisis, there are worries that a U.S. slowdown will trigger a global recession as well.
Uncertainties about the U.S. are compounded by doubts about the economic expertise of the new Bush administration. While the Cabinet has its worthies, none of the senior economic officials has the experience of Mr. Robert Rubin, the former Treasury secretary. Wall Street has expressed concern over just that fact. The absence of any senior U.S. official at the Davos forum is understandable -- the administration is just getting settled in -- but much of the work in a crisis concerns personal relationships, and those are established or reinforced at get-togethers like the WEF meeting.