Economic policymakers are gathered in Prague this week to make sense of the international economy. The mood is mixed, and rightly so. While the global economy has recovered from the scare of 1998 and has registered strong growth ever since, the recovery is fragile. It could be derailed by, say, high energy prices, triggered, ironically enough, by the strong growth of the last two years. Or there could be real crisis — a bank collapse or a loss of confidence in the U.S. stock market — that then ripples across the globe. The uncertainty would seem to put a premium on crisis-management mechanisms. Yet it is precisely here that governments seem most divided and unable to take action.
In its semiannual World Economic Outlook released last week, the International Monetary Fund projected 4.7 percent growth worldwide, a 0.5 percentage-point upward revision from April and the highest level in 12 years. That follows a 3.4 percent expansion this year, and the IMF forecasts 4.2 percent growth in 2001.
Even though the outlook is good, there is little celebrating in Prague. Delegates have been dodging protests against globalization that seem more practiced and better-organized at every such conference. Both demonstrators and delegates are concerned about the inequality that is widening even as the global economy continues its impressive performance.