The biggest concern among economists in the last year has been the prospect of a "hard landing" for the high-flying U.S. economy. They feared that either because of a crisis or by design, the United States would stall and knock the wind out of the global economy. That danger seems to be abating: The U.S. economy is gradually slowing, which is easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and also easing concern about future growth.
Admittedly, the current economic expansion, the longest in postwar history, continues at a blistering pace. Unemployment is near a 30-year low, and new jobs are constantly being created. Inflation remains in check. Wall Street is still heading for the stratosphere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near its all-time high, and the Nasdaq is equally buoyant.
The man on the street applauds those positive indicators, but for economists, they have traditionally been worrisome. It has been an item of faith that low unemployment rates trigger inflationary pressures. The Fed has traditionally raised interest rates in an attempt to keep those fires at bay.