Tensions over the Taiwan Strait are palpable after China did its best to intimidate Taiwanese voters in the runup to last weekend's election. First, the Cabinet released a white paper that drew an unmistakable line -- thickened with a new condition -- regarding the limits of acceptable Taiwanese behavior and when the mainland would use force against the island. Then the annual meeting of the National People's Congress provided the backdrop for a series of speeches and media commentary warning Taipei about the consequences of declaring independence. And finally Premier Zhu Rongji, usually considered a moderate pragmatist, last week bluntly told Taiwanese voters to reject any candidate who supports independence.
Although the rhetoric is as harsh as any Beijing has used in recent years, there is near universal agreement that there is no immediate threat of military action. The consensus is that Beijing was doing its ham-fisted best to influence Taiwanese voters and sending a message to all the candidates in Saturday's presidential ballot that discussions on reunification must resume. Of course, Chinese leaders are never hurt by talking tough when it comes to sovereignty and safeguarding the "territory of the motherland."
All that is true, but there is growing awareness that the world cannot dismiss the threat of military action. There is more than political posturing at work.