Subtlety has never been the Chinese government's strong suit. Unfortunately, the government in Beijing has unleashed its latest broadside against Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province, at perhaps the worst possible time: weeks ahead of the island's second democratic presidential election and just as the U.S. Congress begins deliberation of two bills that go to the heart of U.S. relations with China. There has been some backtracking by Beijing, but the damage has been done.
Earlier this week, the Chinese Cabinet released a white paper that threatened the use of "drastic measures, including force" against Taiwan under three conditions: if Taipei declared independence, if there was a foreign invasion of the island, or if it continued to stall on reunification. The declaration was condemned immediately by Taiwan, the United States and elsewhere. Japan has not commented.
The statement, the most belligerent to be issued by the Chinese government in years, had two purposes. First, it was a blatant attempt to influence the presidential elections that will be held in Taiwan March 18. In that, it backfired. An opinion poll taken in Taiwan the day after the white paper was issued showed that 68 percent of respondents were not worried about a Chinese invasion during the runup to the vote. Second, it put the candidates on notice that the status quo is unsupportable. Progress in cross-strait relations is expected of whoever wins the upcoming election.