As Taiwan approaches the first presidential election that the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) might lose, tensions between Beijing and Taipei are likely to rise. U.S. policy has, unfortunately, made the situation more flammable.
Indeed, reports are circulating that Richard Bush, head of the American Institute, Washington's unofficial embassy in Taipei, has told Taiwan to cease its provocative behavior, lest the United States find itself pulled into a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, without a change in Washington's policy, such warnings are likely to remain unheeded.
Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui triggered a new escalation in tensions with his call for conducting Beijing-Taipei relations on a "state to state" basis. China's response was predictably hostile; China has established two missile bases near its coast, with the weapons apparently targeted on Taiwan. Taipei officials, including Vice President Lien Chan, responded by calling for development of a fleet of long-range missiles to deter potential invaders.