China's relations with the United States are going to turn decidedly cool over the next few months. The already partisan atmosphere in Washington will intensify in the runup to the November elections: Human rights and trade issues will move to the top of the U.S. political agenda. Asian nations need to be prepared for the tension and the fallout. Ironically, this rough spot could provide a firmer foundation for future Sino-U.S. relations, but it promises to be difficult in the interim.
The first warning signal was this week's announcement that the U.S. will introduce a resolution condemning China's human-rights record at the annual meeting of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in March. The U.S. claims that the Chinese government has intensified a crackdown on political dissidents, tightened controls on religion and the Internet, and suppressed ethnic minority groups, especially Tibetans.
China's actions last year deserve condemnation. Prodemocracy activists have been jailed and their sympathizers' activities restricted. A librarian from Dickinson University, a Chinese scholar who won U.S. citizenship but has not yet been sworn in, was arrested five months ago and charged with espionage, although he was merely researching the Cultural Revolution. A campaign is under way to secure his release.