The Dow-Jones industrial average on the New York Stock Exchange broke through the barrier of 10,000 March 16. Following the overnight rally, the benchmark Nikkei average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange regained the 16,000 level for the first time in seven and a half months. The advances appear to signal economic recovery -- or do they?

The United States is enjoying an unprecedented economic boom while the rest of the world continues to experience depression. Japan is still troubled by economic uncertainties. The government's pump-priming package is beginning to have some effect, but the nation's attempts to reform its economic structure are moving at a snail's pace. There are widespread fears that the effects of the package will be only temporary.

There is no denying that the administration of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi is enjoying smooth sailing in terms of its political and economic management -- a sharp turnaround from last August, when it was inaugurated. At that time, the outlook for the administration looked grim.