Russia's political stability under the active leadership of President Boris Yeltsin is the most crucial factor in the success of the ongoing talks for a long-pending peace treaty with Japan. The track record of the bilateral negotiations is clear evidence of this. When Mr. Yeltsin was healthy and confident, he acted as an impressive spur to bilateral developments: In November 1997 at Krasnoyarsk, Mr. Yeltsin made a bold proposal to sign a peace treaty before the end of 2000 and in April 1998 at Kawana, he responded positively to former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's proposal to draw a border.
Those breakthroughs would not have occurred without the Russian leader's self-confidence and the fortunate meeting of minds between Mr. Hashimoto and Mr. Yeltsin, who has been known for his reluctance to have confidence in other political leaders. Mr. Yeltsin's failing health, therefore, appears to cast a cloud over the prospects for settling the decades-old bilateral territorial disputes that have carried over from the days of the Soviet Union. The disputed Northern Territories consist of the islands of Kunashiri, Etorofu and Shikotan, and the Habomai group of islets.
Against this backdrop, the working-level talks held in Moscow last week marked the first time that the two committees created to work out a territorial settlement -- one on the border issue and the other on the joint economic development of the islands -- had met. Both sides agreed to strive for a peace treaty by the end of 2000, but failed to make specific progress.