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Even after central banks recognized they got their inflation calls wrong last year, they’ve continued to flub their policy guidance, threatening greater damage to their credibility, roiling markets and undermining the pandemic recovery.

The Federal Reserve is now expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points Wednesday, just weeks after Chair Jerome Powell and his team repeatedly advertised a half percentage point move. It’s the latest in a series of misfires, from deeming high inflation “transitory” last year to speeding up the end of its bond-purchase program to accelerating the runoff of its bond portfolio.

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