China’s tightening COVID-19 rules and extended lockdowns are making a 2020-style V-shaped economic recovery a slim possibility this time around.

The slump in output may not be as deep as two years ago, when most of the country was under some form of restriction from late January through much of February following the outbreak in Wuhan. Currently, areas making up only about 30% of gross domestic product are under full or partial lockdown, according to estimates from Nomura Holdings Inc.

However, given the ability of the highly infectious omicron variant to evade stringent controls, there’s greater risk this time of cities shutting down and then reopening repeatedly over several months. Major hub Shanghai is still in lockdown after five weeks, and while cases are easing there now, Beijing and other cities are tightening restrictions to curb their own outbreaks.