Millions of barrels of Russian oil are still finding a way to buyers almost a month after the country first invaded Ukraine, tempering concerns that a sanctions backlash would all but choke off supply and cause the market for physical cargoes to overheat.
India’s oil refiners grabbed multiple cargoes of Russia’s flagship Urals crude this month, potentially supplanting the Middle Eastern varieties they normally purchase from Abu Dhabi and Iraq. Meanwhile, China’s private processors are still thought to be targeting their favored cargoes from the east of Russia — likely at knock-down prices.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine late last month, the market has been twisting on two vital questions: how much crude will Moscow end up selling, and where? There’s been a buyers’ strike across swaths of Europe in response to the invasion, but what’s less clear is how much other regions — especially Asia, the top demand center — will purchase.