For organizers and athletes, holding the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics with or without domestic spectators may make a huge difference.

However, staging the major sporting event amid the coronavirus pandemic with spectators reduced to a maximum of 10,000 per venue or 50% of capacity — whichever is smaller — may not, by itself, make much of a difference when it comes to the economy. But some economists have raised a red flag that the economy could receive a heavy blow, rather than a boon, from the postponed Olympics depending on whether Japan can keep the spread of the virus in check.

Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, estimates that the economic benefits of the Tokyo Games will be ¥1.72 trillion ($16 billion) if spectators are allowed at each venue in accordance with the attendance limits.