With the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo having nearly quadrupled in 10 days, it seems no longer a question of whether Japan will declare a national emergency, but when and how.

Officials and experts fear the capital city may not be prepared to handle an explosive rise in the number of cases that would overwhelm hospitals and collapse the health care system, also described as an “overshoot.”

Though officials maintain that an overshoot has not yet occurred in Tokyo, or anywhere else in the country, they say the danger remains imminent.