World | ANALYSIS

Fears grow of a bad peace deal with the Taliban as Trump eyes quick withdrawal from Afghanistan

AFP-JIJI

An Afghanistan peace agreement that the United States seems close to reaching with the Taliban has prompted worries that President Donald Trump’s desire to quickly withdraw U.S. troops could further plunge the country into civil war.

Trump said Friday he was pleased with talks on ending the war, 18 years after the Sept. 11 attacks that prompted the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in the first place.

In recent days, several U.S. officials have suggested that an accord could be imminent in discussions with the Taliban in Qatar.

The U.S. negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, is expected to return to the region very soon in hopes of sealing an agreement with the Afghan rebel force.

Such a potentially historic accord has prompted an outcry from an eclectic assortment of critics in Washington, ranging from neoconservatives to former Democratic administration officials to ex-military heroes.

In tweets, interviews and opinion pieces in newspapers they are cautioning against hastily bringing home the 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, a warning that some hope will also score points ahead of next year’s presidential election.

And they are calling on Trump to treat this war as he did North Korea and its nuclear weapons and insist on no deal rather than a bad deal.

“Under no circumstances should the Trump administration repeat the mistake its predecessor made in Iraq and agree to a total withdrawal of combat forces from Afghanistan,” retired Gen. David Petraeus, who used to command those soldiers, warned in a piece for The Wall Street Journal.

He was referring to former President Barack Obama and how the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq helped fuel the emergence of the Islamic State group.

The main points of the peace accord being negotiated with the Taliban are known: U.S. soldiers would withdraw in exchange for a pledge from them not to let al-Qaida or the Islamic State group operate in the territory that the Taliban controls.

There would also be an immediate cease-fire, and the Taliban would begin talks with the Afghan government, with which the rebels have until now refused all dialogue.

Withdrawal of U.S. troops is sought by the American public, has been promised by Trump and is a talking point of several Democratic presidential hopefuls.

The risk is that it will intensify the war.

This “will depend on the details,” said Laurel Miller, former senior U.S. State Department official responsible for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There is much speculation as to what those details might entail.

For instance, it seems the Taliban are prepared to call a cease-fire with U.S. troops but not with the Afghan Army.

A total, absolute withdrawal of U.S. forces has at least been on the negotiating table and it has never been ruled out in Washington.

“If we leave Afghanistan without a counterterrorism force, without intelligence-gathering capabilities, ISIS will re-emerge, al-Qaida will come back, they will occupy safe havens in Afghanistan, they will hit the homeland, they will come after us all over the world,” Sen. Lindsey Graham told Fox News, using an acronym for the Islamic State group.

Graham, who takes credit for persuading Trump to keep some troops in Syria after announcing a total pullout, insisted that Afghanistan needs a “continuing U.S. presence” and America requires a “meaningful counterterrorism force” there.

Trump has promised only a strong intelligence-gathering presence. And some in his administration want any future counterterrorism operations to be launched from other countries.

“Effective counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan — and, just as important, in neighboring tribal areas of Pakistan — will prove all but impossible absent an enduring U.S. footprint on Afghan soil,” Petraeus wrote in a piece co-signed by Afghanistan expert Vance Serchuk.

Another issue is the timetable of a U.S. withdrawal. Trump, seeking a second term in office, wants to announce the pullout before the election in November 2020.

But there have been signs in recent days pointing to a withdrawal actually completed around the time of the election.

Setting a timetable now “means the Taliban will enter subsequent talks among Afghans having already achieved their main goal and with their stature and bargaining position thereby enhanced,” Miller wrote in Foreign Policy.

She argued that there should be a phased U.S. withdrawal linked to specific progress in the Afghan peace process, such as adoption of a revised constitution with power-sharing features and subsequent elections.

Without a clear pledge from the Taliban to repudiate al-Qaida and respect women’s rights, among others, and without verification mechanisms, “we will not be ending the war — we will be retreating and ceding the battlefield to our enemies, including the organization that harbored the terrorists responsible for killing nearly 3,000 Americans on 9/11,” said Republican Rep. Liz Cheney.

At the Pentagon, officials are cautious.

“It’s an ugly, messy, forever war. It is probably going to be messy to get out,” one military source at the Pentagon said.

GET THE BEST OF THE JAPAN TIMES
IN FIVE EASY PIECES WITH TAKE 5