North Korea's new long-range ballistic missile will "likely" be able to strike targets on the U.S. West Coast — including San Diego — with a 500-kilogram nuclear warhead in the next one to two years, the U.S.-based monitoring group has said in an analysis.

The influential 38 North website, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report released Monday that the North's test last week of an intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-14, highlighted the isolated regime's technological shortcomings — but also its advances.

While earlier reports said the ICBM could have traveled some 7,000-8,000 km if launched on a standard rather than "lofted" trajectory, aerospace engineer John Schilling said in the analysis, adding that "it can probably do a bit better than that when all the bugs are worked out."