A Nobel Peace Prize observer with a relatively unsuccessful betting record speculates that the Japanese people who uphold war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution are most likely to be chosen the winner of this year's award, which is to be announced this week.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of Peace Research Institute Oslo, picks around five contenders each year. He has been right only once over the past decade, correctly guessing former U.S. Vice President Al Gore as the winner in 2007. Gore was jointly recognized for his climate change activism along with the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Noting Article 9's renunciation of war and its rejection of the use of force as a means of settling international disputes, Harpviken said Friday that "there are concerns that the reinterpretation of Article 9 in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government earlier this year is the precursor of armed confrontation."