Robert Geller, an American seismologist teaching in Japan, has been fighting a lonely battle against what he says is a hopeless national initiative for predicting big earthquakes.

"Earthquake probability information announced by the government is quite meaningless," Geller, 62, said at an open seminar held by an academic society in Kobe, which was heavily damaged by a quake in 1995.

"An earthquake could occur anywhere without warning. You should prepare for the unpredictable," he said.