The probability of a major earthquake occurring and triggering massive tsunami in the Pacific Ocean off eastern and northeastern Japan within the next 30 years has been revised upward to 30 percent from 20 percent, a government panel said.
The Earthquake Research Committee re-examined its long-term estimate of killer temblors after the March 11 disasters and found that a quake that triggers tsunami as powerful as those caused by the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku earthquake, which killed more than 20,000 people, is more likely to happen in an undersea zone stretching 800 km from north to south.
The panel stopped short of predicting the magnitude of the possible quake but said past records suggest it would measure magnitude 8.0 or stronger. The 1896 tsunami topped 38 meters.