A primary budget surplus can be achieved in fiscal 2018, seven years behind the original schedule, as tax revenues decline with the economic downturn, the Cabinet Office said Wednesday.
The office estimated that even with a gradual consumption tax hike from fiscal 2011, a revenue slump will prevent the government from attaining a primary budget surplus anytime soon.
A primary budget surplus will be achieved when outlays other than debt services are covered by revenues excluding debt issues.
The government has effectively ditched its target of achieving a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2011, saying it would be "very difficult." The latest estimates confirm that target is unrealistic.
The target for fiscal reconstruction efforts was introduced in fiscal 2006 by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
The estimates, presented Wednesday to the Liberal Democratic Party, put a primary budget deficit of some ¥15.2 trillion for fiscal 2011, revised upward from about ¥3.9 trillion forecast last summer.
In making the estimates, the Cabinet Office has assumed the economy will grow about 1.5 percent a year in real terms on average from fiscal 2011.
The office has also assumed that the consumption tax will be raised from fiscal 2011 by 1 percentage point to reach 10 percent in fiscal 2015.