The Bank of Japan's expectation that the economy will soon pull out of its current stagnation was questioned Thursday by board member Tadao Noda, who predicted that global growth will slow further.
"We maintain the view that Japan's economy will return to a moderate growth path, which is our main scenario," Noda said in a speech to business executives in Kushiro, Hokkaido. "However, at present, that probability is extremely uncertain."
The global financial crisis spurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may exacerbate a slowdown in Japan's economy, which is already on the verge of recession. Export growth slowed last month, led by a record drop in shipments to the United States, a government report showed Thursday.
"In general, Japan's financial system remains stable, even though tensions are rising because of the volatility of global financial markets," said Noda, a former executive at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. "Japan's financial institutions may report more losses resulting from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, however, most of those losses can probably be absorbed."
Noda's speech didn't touch on the possible side effects of prolonging a low-rate policy, which was included in the BOJ's policy statement last week. At its most recent meeting, the bank's Policy Board kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies.
The global economy will probably slow further this year and in 2009, Noda said, adding that it will regain momentum in 2010 at the earliest. Export growth slowed last month because of a record plunge in shipments to the U.S., a government report showed.