More than 70 percent of rank-and-file members of the Liberal Democratic Party want Shinzo Abe to be the next LDP president, according to a recent Kyodo News survey.
The outcome, combined with earlier predictions the chief Cabinet secretary has about 80 percent of the LDP's Diet members in his pocket, means he is certain to win the party's Sept. 20 leadership election, effectively making him the next prime minister.
Under LDP rules, the winner of the election must have a majority of 703 votes, which consist of the 403 LDP members in Diet and 300 ballots from local chapters reflecting the choices of some 1.06 million rank-and-file party members.
The survey showed that Abe is likely to secure more than 200 of the 300 local chapter ballots. Among 1,458 respondents, 76.8 percent cited their favorite candidate by name. Of these, 73.7 percent supported Abe.
Abe's two rivals were not even close. Foreign Minister Taro Aso had support from 15.1 percent of the respondents and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki had 11.2 percent.
Asked what the next LDP leader's priorities should be, 44.9 percent cited social security issues, such as pensions, while 20.7 percent said economic measures. Those who wanted improved relations with China and South Korea stood at 7.1 percent.
The respondents were divided over hiking the consumption tax to bolster social security, with 46.0 percent in favor and 47.2 percent against.
On revising the Constitution, 52.4 percent favor it and 27.2 percent do not. On Yasukuni Shrine, 40.5 percent said they expect the new LDP president to pay his respects there, while 37.3 percent said they do not.
Abe was the most popular candidate in all 47 prefectures except Fukuoka, where Aso is based, and Kyoto Prefecture, where Tanigaki is based.
A little less than 20 percent of the respondents said they have not yet decided who to vote for.