The nation’s gross domestic product for the January-March quarter will show an annualized 4 percent to 10 percent growth in real terms, in contrast to contractions in the preceding three quarters, 12 major private think tanks have predicted.
In recent forecasts, the think tanks said they expect the January-March GDP data, due out Friday, to show high growth led by a rise in exports and personal spending — the largest component of the economy.
Sumitomo-Life Research Institute forecast an annualized 10.2 percent real GDP growth for the reporting period. Mizuho Research Institute predicted 9.8 percent growth.
Some think tanks said the upcoming GDP figures will fail to match the public’s view of the economy, citing a technical tendency showing higher results.
Nikko Solomon Smith Barney Ltd. forecast 4.3 percent growth and Mitsubishi Research Institute forecast 4.1 percent.
All 12 think tanks expect personal spending and exports to be up. They cited economic recovery in the United States and East Asia as major reasons for increased Japanese exports.
They expect exports to be up more than 4 percent from the previous quarter. Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co. sees growth of 10.3 percent, and Nomura Research Institute forecasts 7.4 percent growth.
Nomura expects a 2.8 percent rise in personal spending from the previous quarter. UFJ Institute and Mizuho project a 2.5 percent increase.
But Mizuho said firm personal spending data also reflected a technical tendency showing higher results, especially in household spending surveys.
Eight of the 12 believe capital spending fell. Mitsubishi expects it to be 3.3 percent lower, and Japan Research Institute and Nikko Solomon see a 2.3 percent drop.
The think tanks may revise their projections after the Finance Ministry releases its quarterly survey on corporate activities, including corporate capital spending, on Wednesday.
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