
Commentary / World Oct 25, 2021
China must restore growth or face economic uncertainty
China’s experience over the past 40 years shows that without decent growth, financial stability is difficult to achieve.
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China’s experience over the past 40 years shows that without decent growth, financial stability is difficult to achieve.
Policy changes might not be enough. Instead, China’s economic recovery may well depend on how the fight against COVID-19 unfolds.
As a developing economy with a per capita income of just over $10,000, China can tolerate higher inflation better than developed economies can.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC, the central bank) is likely to maintain its monetary policy stance, if not tighten it.
In 2015, Gabriel Zucman estimated that at least $7.6 trillion of the world’s private wealth was held in tax havens, equivalent to 8% of global household financial assets.
For China, accepting lower growth provides a crucial opportunity to support stable and sustainable development.
Chinese President Xi Jinping certainly will not pass up the chance to ensure that the G-20 agenda serves China's interests next year.
China's leaders should take advantage of the recent respite from instability and low confidence to redouble their economic reform efforts. Otherwise, they can expect alarm bells to begin ringing again.
As China remains among the world's poorest countries, with per capita income amounting to less than $7,000, its position as the world's largest exporter of capital signifies a gross misallocation of resources. It should adopt a float exchange-rate regime as soon as possible.
Although China's leadership succession was completed earlier this year, the policy agenda for the coming decade has only just been revealed at its Third Plenum.