Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is reported to have taken a step back from his push to amend the Constitution by 2020 — following steep declines in the approval ratings of his administration in media polls — indicating last week that he would leave the matter to discussions within his Liberal Democratic Party and in the Diet. Abe and members of his Liberal Democratic Party should indeed stop and consider whether the amendment they're pursuing is really based on a pressing and genuine need to change the Constitution, or is driven by the political window of opportunity opened by their majority control of the Diet.
Abe's LDP-Komeito governing coalition, along with other forces favoring a constitutional amendment, gained control of a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Diet as a result of the Upper House election in July last year — which means they can now initiate an amendment to the Constitution and put it up for approval in a national referendum. Abe, eager to change the Constitution while he is in office, pushed discussions on the issue forward in May when he expressed his hope that an amended Constitution would take effect in 2020 and singled out the war-renouncing Article 9 as a target of revision to clarify the legal status of the Self-Defense Forces. The prime minister took the initiative to expedite the LDP discussions and said the party would submit its amendment proposal to the Diet this fall — so that the legislature could act on an amendment as early as next year.
That schedule now appears to be in doubt after Abe's once seemingly solid support ratings took a nosedive — following a series of scandals that hurt the administration and LDP lawmakers — and the party suffered severe electoral setbacks at the polls, including a stunning defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. In reshuffling his Cabinet last week (which gave a boost to his approval ratings), the prime minister said the "schedule (for amending the Constitution) should not be determined in advance," indicating that he proposed the timeline for an amendment "to spur discussions" on the issue. Abe also said he would like the LDP to take the lead because it will be the Diet that will initiate an amendment. A close aide to Abe told the media that the remarks represent a change in the plan to submit an LDP proposal to the Diet this fall.