Recently, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter to introduce his North Korea policy. His "no way" tweet regarding the North's intercontinental ballistic missile didn't have any meaning. Some took it as Trump expressing doubts about capabilities of North Korea's rockets; others as a warning that he would order a pre-emptive strike on the country. Added to this, there was a stringent attack on China, but without any specifics. He returned to Twitter to lambaste Toyota's plans to invest in Mexico. There is something for Polonius' quip that brevity is the soul of wit, but even the bard gave the kings and emperors of his plays more than 140 characters to express their ideas.
Since Trump will soon be sworn as America's 45th president, Japan should be anxious and fearful. Tokyo has always wanted American support against North Korea, but even a "hawkish" Cabinet such as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's will think twice before supporting operations that could lead to a new war on the Korean Peninsula. Japan Inc. would be the first collateral damage of a U.S. trade war with China should Trump follow campaign promises. And, obviously, Tokyo does not relish American Japan-bashing in the auto industry.
Beijing has almost as many reasons to be concerned as Tokyo. An America weakened by a tweeter-in-chief with no attachment to U.S. core alliances and the international liberal order built by previous American administrations is good news for Chinese President Xi Jinping. But enormous tariffs on Chinese goods, a national security adviser (Michael Flynn) who thinks China supports the Islamic State militant group, and a president who seems to regret that nuclear bombs aren't used is not what the Chinese Communist Party wants. Even if on balance Trump is likely to undermine the United State's relative power in the world, there's a significant risk that in doing so he could seriously hurt the interests of the CCP in a negative sum game.