Did Donald Trump just "pledge that the U.S. will wage pre-emptive war" against North Korea? This question from Brookings Institution head Strobe Talbott isn't academic — it's now a central part of investors' 2017 calculations.

It's also among the reasons last year's 9 percent gold rally (to about $1,151 per ounce) has legs as geopolitics trumps economics in the world's most dynamic region. Escalating Washington-Pyongyang tensions alone could make surveys predicting a 12 percent or 13 percent bullion surge this year look conservative. The South China Sea and Taiwan, remember, are additional flash points that could take risk-on trades to new heights.

Trump's people caution against reading too much into the president-elect's tweets. Yet one he sent Jan. 2 — "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!" — has security wags in a whirl and asking questions akin to Talbott's. South Korean and Japanese officials are channeling Kellyanne Conway, explaining what they hope Trump might, possibly, perhaps have meant. I guess Trump's offer to discuss nukes with Kim over a hamburger is off the menu.