The Donald Trump presidency has the potential to mark an inflection point in the evolution of America's alliance arrangements from Europe to the Pacific. On Nov. 20 this paper reported that with Trump coming to power, Japan could pivot away from U.S.-centric policy. Because of Trump's "America first" policy, some argue, Japan may need to chart a more self-reliant foreign policy. Trump has a history of demanding that U.S. allies in Europe and the Pacific, instead of free-riding on the American taxpayer, accept a bigger share of the costs of their defense. But if they become self-reliant in paying for national security, almost inevitably they will also pursue a more self-reliant diplomacy as well.
Thus the election of Trump could prove a disruptive force in forcing many allies to engage in a clear-eyed and hard-headed analysis of the costs, risks and constraints of the U.S. alliance alongside the security, diplomatic and economic benefits. In consequence, Australia too could emerge from the shadow of the U.S. alliance as a self-confident and independent Indo-Pacific actor. During its two-year term on the United Nations Security Council, for example, Australia was able simultaneously to advance the common Western agenda on some issues while leveraging its close relations with Washington to advantage in promoting some of its own priorities. With Trump, however, the fundamental question of a coincidence of interests and convergence of values can no longer be avoided.
Yet, reinforced by the strategically foolish entanglements in Vietnam and Iraq, the perception persists in several quarters that often Australia plays a lickspittle role of deputy sheriff to Uncle Sam. A recent example of this is Australia being one of 38 countries to vote against the U.N. resolution on Oct. 27 for a treaty to ban nuclear arms that was supported by 123 countries. As noted in an earlier article in these pages (Nov. 5), this put Australia on the wrong side of history, geography (all Asia-Pacific countries save U.S. allies Australia, Japan and South Korea voted for the ban treaty) and humanity. Given all we know about Trump's erratic and volatile temperament, his election as U.S. president should elevate nuclear disarmament to the very top of Australia's foreign policy priority.