For over a decade, tensions have risen slowly but steadily in the contested Asia-Pacific maritime environment as China pursues a three-pronged strategy of building up war-fighting and power projection capabilities, calibrated shows of force and a strategy of exhaustion against rival claimants (Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines). Apparently random and sporadic acts of provocation and showdown, deliberately held below the threshold of open warfare, are calculated to induce strategic fatigue over time, erode regional confidence and cumulatively break the political resolve to resist.
In 2013, the Philippines injected a potential circuit breaker by referring its maritime territorial dispute with China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague. Its judgment, delivered July 12, upholds almost all of the Philippines complaint and is a comprehensive rejection of most of China's claims, in particular the "nine dash line" that no one else recognizes, and a sweeping rebuke of China's conduct. The unexpectedly tough rebuff vindicates the Philippines strategy of using international law and U.N. arbitration as instruments to redress power asymmetries in bilateral disputes.
The ripples will be felt far and wide. Japan may be adversely affected in its claims to Okinotorishima that Japan occupies but Taiwan claims. Even Australia's actions regarding the Elizabeth and Middleton reefs could come under scrutiny.