As Japan stares into the abyss, Friedrich Nietzsche is staring back at it. Tokyo, after all, has the German philosopher's what-doesn't-kill-you-makes-you-stronger sentiment in mind as some officials insist on raising taxes in a deflationary and recession-prone economy.
Japan would be crazy to do it. Households and businesses are still smarting from a 2014 consumption tax hike, never mind a second jolt planned for 2017. But then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also is being told he'd be crazy to postpone it. His Finance Ministry warns delay would dent Japan's reputation in markets. Opposition parties say it would necessitate the resignation of his entire Cabinet. The president of Mizuho, Japan's second largest bank by assets, says Tokyo risks a credit-rating downgrade.
Abe may announce a decision as soon as Wednesday. Whatever he says, I assign zero odds to Tokyo actually raising the consumption tax from 8 percent to 10 percent next year. And as Abe looks into the financial abyss, it's his own failure to implement a single major structural reform after 41 months in office staring back at him. Abenomics promised to hasten growth, boost wages, create jobs and raise productivity. Instead, Abe got the Bank of Japan to do all the work, while he tended to pet projects like tweaking the pacifist Constitution.