The big loser in the parliamentary elections held last weekend in Turkey was President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Not only did his Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose its majority in the legislature, but the results were a rejection of the president's ambitions to claim additional powers. It is a stunning defeat for a master politician and heralds a period of instability in Turkish politics. The eventual outcome of this political struggle is unclear.
When he was first elected prime minister in 2003, Erdogan governed as a moderate Islamist reformer who challenged the secular elites who had ruled Turkey since its founding as a republic in 1923. Given the threat he posed to entrenched interests, in particular the military, he was forced to produce results. Economic liberalization jump-started the economy, making Turkey one of Europe's top performers. He reduced a long-standing source of domestic instability by extending rights to the Kurdish minority. And, most important, he was a moderate Muslim politician, who offered a middle course between Islamic extremists and secular conservatives. Indeed, many politicians saw Erdogan as a new type of Islamic leader who could bridge the gap between Muslims and the West as well as serve as a model for leadership in the Islamic world.
Unfortunately, that moderate image has dissolved in recent years as Erdogan has pursued campaigns to crush any opposition to him using every power at his disposal. He is quick to see conspiracies behind all opposition to him. He has arrested members of the military and police forces, politicians and journalists. He believes that an exiled Islamic leader has scattered a cadre of his own believers throughout the bureaucracy to undermine his government.