One indication of the perilous state of the ceasefire that is supposed to prevent all-out war between the Ukraine government and separatist rebels was the announcement last weekend that Heidi Tagliavini, Europe's chief mediator in the crisis, wants to quit. That declaration came as fighting made the ceasefire look increasingly meaningless and leading industrialized nations met at the Group of Seven summit to figure out how to keep pressure on Russia. Sadly, there is little reason to hope for a genuine and enduring deal: Moscow needs to preserve the option of instability in Ukraine to maintain leverage over political discussions in Kiev and security talks throughout Europe.
Four months ago, Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France agreed to a ceasefire in the Donbass region of Ukraine, where separatist rebels fought the Ukrainian government for autonomy and eventual independence from Kiev. Officially, the rebels are an independent force, aided only by Russian volunteers; in fact, the rebel force is supported by the Russian military and government. There is little indication that they could survive without Russian assistance.
The February deal followed the collapse of a ceasefire agreed a month earlier, which itself was an attempt to shore up a ceasefire concluded in September last year. The February agreement was shaky from the start, with fighting continuing in areas where the rebels looked set to advance. While the two sides exchanged fire on a daily basis, casualties were limited, at least until last week when fighting over the city of Maryinka left at least 28 people dead.