The war in eastern Ukraine, which has had more impact on Europe's economy than any news coming out of Frankfurt or Brussels, appears to be ending despite the sporadic attacks that have wrecked previous cease-fire attempts.
Investors have mostly assumed that the cease-fire would not hold, either because Russian President Vladimir Putin is deceitful and greedy for more territorial conquest, or because Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko would not accept the splintering of his country that Russia demands. But this fashionable pessimism is probably wrong.
The cease-fire no longer relies on good faith or benevolence but rather on a convergence of interests: Putin has achieved all his key objectives, and Poroshenko recognizes that trying to reverse militarily the Russian gains would be national suicide.